The Fate of Humanity: Low Fertility Rates and a Depreciating Population

Friday - December 29 2023, 04:20 UTC - 10 months ago

The global fertility rate is approaching 1.3, a concerningly low number that will have wide-ranging implications for population growth and the global economy. Poor countries such as India and Bangladesh have already succumb to below-replacement fertility rates, meaning the next generation has half as many fertile women. Without humans there is no bright future for humanity, and it is an appropriate moment to reflect on, and respond to, the impending effects of low fertility.

Elon Musk says clear truths that without humans there is no bright future for humanity. The world population in 2200 will be about 250 million if if all countries have a total fertility rate of 1.0 or less. This is the current situation in South Korea, China and Taiwan. Falling below replacement levels of 2.1 means that the average woman no longer has an average of 1 daughter. If fertility rates go to 1 .

0 or less that means the total of all women have half of a daughter. This means the next generation (30 years later) has half as many fertile women. In 60 years there are 25% as many fertile women and in 90 years there are 12.5% as many fertile women. The world is trending to a low-fertility scenario, global fertility is approaching 1.3 after 2050. Poor countries like India and Bangladesh have fallen below replacement .

This means the mother is not on average replacing herself with a daughter and the father with a son. Low fertility rates have been linked to a number of factors including increased urbanisation, lack of educational and economic opportunities for women, the availability of contraception and increased healthcare access. Average global fertility is estimated to decrease further to 1.2 by 2100, meaning the global population is expected to start decreasing by that time .

Long-term low fertility rates are predicted to have wide-reaching implications for the global economy, impacting growth, employment, health and social welfare systems. In developed countries, fertility rates are predicted to remain below replacement levels even after the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. Low fertility rates have been linked to a rise in aging societies and a shrink in the working-age population .

In countries where immigration is not a major factor in population growth, low fertility rates are playing a significant role in population decline. The scenario of low fertility presents a unique challenge to humanity, as the world population will both age rapidly and decrease. Reversing the trend of low fertility rates is not a simple task, and its impacts are yet to be seen in terms of the global economy and society .

It is worth noting, however, that despite global challenges to maintain the working-age population, nations with low fertility rates are entering a whole new era of opportunity. As societies have fewer dependents and are better equipped to provide for their citizens, there are unprecedented chances to focus on sustainable infrastructure, improved technology, and innovative economic strategies. Low fertility will bring about a new population trend, but its true implications remain to be seen .