The Downfall of Trailblazers: Examining the Recent Declines of ChatGPT and Threads

Wednesday - July 26 2023, 17:52 UTC - 1 year ago

ChatGPT and Threads experience a drastic decline in engagement and user numbers, proving that being the first mover in a market does not guarantee success. Issues like unsustainable growth, inadequate scaling infrastructure and a lack of user retention strategies are three primary contributing factors to this downturn.

ChatGPT recently experienced a decline in user engagement for the first time since its launch in November 2022. From May to June, engagement dropped 9.7 percent, with the largest decline —10.3 percent—occurring in the United States.Meanwhile, Meta's Threads platform experienced a significant drop in user numbers, going from more than 49 million users on July 7 to 23.6 million active users by July 14. In the same time frame, the average time users in the U.S. spent on the app dropped from a peak of 21 minutes in early July to just above six minutes.

In the tech world, companies are always racing to be the first ones to introduce new innovations, aiming for the "first mover's advantage." This refers to a firm's ability to get a head start over competitors by being the first to enter a new product category or market.

However, being a trailblazer doesn't guarantee an easy ride. While there are perceived benefits, there are also a plethora of challenges that arise. The recent declines of Threads and ChatGPT attest to this reality, demonstrating that rapid and widespread acceptance doesn't necessarily lead to long-term success.

There are a few reasons why a fast adoption isn't necessarily the key to success including unsustainable growth, inadequate scaling infrastructure and a lack of user retention strategies.

Unsustainable growth .

The idea of unsustainable growth stems from a platform's inability to uphold or maintain the quality of the user experience while scaling up at a rapid pace. This is where the real challenge lies: being able to effectively scale up a product or service. It is precisely at this junction that the concept of unsustainable growth intersects with the Gartner Hype Cycle.

The Gartner Hype Cycle is a model that shows the stages of emerging technology adoption: from the initial hype and inflated expectations, through disillusionment and skepticism, to practical and mainstream productivity. In the context of unsustainable growth, products like ChatGPT and Threads appear to have reached the stage known as "peak of inflated expectations," where the publicity of a new product generates over-enthusiasm and unrealistic expectations. During this stage, users rapidly adopt the product due to its novelty and the hype surrounding it.

However, this stage often leads to the "trough of disillusionment." During this stage, the product fails to meet users' unrealistic expectations, causing a decline in their interest. It indicates the product's growth may have outpaced its ability to provide an excellent user experience. Without enhancing the product based on user feedback, declining user engagement will ensue.

Inadequate scaling infrastructure .

When a platform's user base expands at a rapid pace, the question of whether that platfor can scale quickly enough to handle the influx of new users immediately becomes apparent. Inadequate scaling infrastructure can be the downfall of a product, as it is not suitable for supporting a large user base.

Poor scaling infrastructure can lead to the product's failure as it cannot handle increased demand for its services. This can manifest in slow loading times, crashed servers, and general performance issues. In addition, inadequate scaling infrastructure can also lead to a decrease in user engagement as user experience is negatively impacted.

Lack of user retention strategies .

Once a platform's user base reaches a certain size, its ability to retain users becomes increasingly important. This is where user retention strategies come in to play. It is important to have an effective strategy for both attracting new users and encouraging existing ones to stay. Retention strategies include providing incentives to users, styling the platform's user interface in an intuitive and user-friendly manner, and creating content that is tailored to the platform's target audience.

This rise and fall underscores the challenge of achieving sustainable growth in the face of rapid adoption. The initial hype often attracts a massive influx of users, but without a clear, scalable strategy for maintaining quality and engagement, platforms can quickly lose their appeal.