The Complexity of Predicting Climate Disasters

Tuesday - April 2 2024, 01:37 UTC - 7 months ago

New mathematical modeling reveals that the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, a key ocean current system, is much more complex and unpredictable than previously thought. This complexity makes predicting climate behavior challenging, as there are multiple states the system can organize itself into, and it is difficult to determine which transitions could lead to major global impacts. Scientists may not be able to rely on nature to provide early warning signals for climate disasters, as it is difficult to predict the severity of these transitions.

An international team of scientists has warned against relying on nature providing straightforward 'early warning' indicators of a climate disaster, as new mathematical modeling shows new fascinating aspects of the complexity of the dynamics of climate. This modeling, which included mathematicians from the University of Leicester, focuses on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, one of the main ocean current systems .

The results suggest that the stability of this system is much more complicated than simply being in an 'on' or 'off' state as previously believed. Instead, there are multiple states that the system can organize itself into, and switching between these states can have major regional impacts, although not as extreme as a complete transition between qualitatively different states. However, these minor transitions could still lead to major global impacts .

This complexity makes it difficult for scientists to predict climate behavior, as predicting the specific state of the system is challenging due to its incredible complexity. In order to accurately predict climate, models must either be of high resolution or allow for rigorous statistical analysis. Professor Valerio Lucarini, from the University of Leicester, explains that this can be compared to a tower of Jenga blocks .

Removing a few blocks may affect the stability of the tower, but it is difficult to predict which block will cause the entire tower to collapse. The findings of this study, led by the Niels Bohr Institute at the University of Copenhagen, were recently published in Science Advances.