Rainy Days: How AI Is Revolutionizing Weather Forecasting

Tuesday - November 21 2023, 15:57 UTC - 1 year ago

This year has been defined by unprecedented extreme weather events. Google DeepMind's AI, GraphCast, changes how we predict and prepare for these events. It achieved unprecedented accuracy by churning through more data faster. It also predicted the onset of extreme temperatures further into the future than current methods. This AI will help communities better prepare against extreme weather to potentially save lives.

This year was a nonstop parade of extreme weather events. Unprecedented heat swept the globe. This summer was the Earth’s hottest since 1880. From flash floods in California and ice storms in Texas to devastating wildfires in Maui and Canada, weather-related events deeply affected lives and communities.

Every second counts when it comes to predicting these events. AI could help.

This week, Google DeepMind released an AI that delivers 10-day weather forecasts with unprecedented accuracy and speed. Called GraphCast, the model can churn through hundreds of weather-related datapoints for a given location and generate predictions in under a minute. When challenged with over a thousand potential weather patterns, the AI beat state-of-the-art systems roughly 90 percent of the time.

But GraphCast isn’t just about building a more accurate weather app for picking wardrobes.

Although not explicitly trained to detect extreme weather patterns, the AI picked up several atmospheric events linked to these patterns. Compared to previous methods, it more accurately tracked cyclone trajectories and detected atmospheric rivers—sinewy regions in the atmosphere associated with flooding.

GraphCast also predicted the onset of extreme temperatures well in advance of current methods. With 2024 set to be even warmer and extreme weather events on the rise, the AI’s predictions could give communities valuable time to prepare and potentially save lives.

"GraphCast is now the most accurate 10-day global weather forecasting system in the world, and can predict extreme weather events further into the future than was previously possible," the authors wrote in a DeepMind blog post.

Predicting weather patterns, even just a week ahead, is an old but extremely challenging problem. We base many decisions on these forecasts. Some are embedded in our everyday lives: Should I grab my umbrella today? Other decisions are life-or-death, like when to issue orders to evacuate or shelter in place.

Our current forecasting software is largely based on physical models of the Earth’s atmosphere. By examining the physics of weather systems, scientists have written a number of equations from decades of data, which are then fed into supercomputers to generate predictions.

A prominent example is the Integrated Forecasting System at the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. The system uses sophisticated calculations based on our current understanding of weather patterns to churn out predictions every six hours, providing the world with some of the most accurate weather forecasts available.

This system "and modern weather forecasting more generally, are triumphs of science and engineering," wrote the DeepMind team.

Over the years, physics-based methods have rapidly improved in accuracy, in part thanks to more powerful computers. But they remain time consuming and costly.

This isn’t surprising. Weather is one the most complex physical systems on Earth. You might have heard of the butterfly effect: A butterfly flaps its wings, and this tiny change in the atmosphere alters the trajectory of a tornado. While just a metaphor, it cautions how unpredictable the weather can be.

This year has been defined by unprecedented extreme weather events. Heatwaves, floods, cyclones and more have deeply impacted communities around the world. Google DeepMind’s AI, GraphCast, changes how we predict and prepare for these events. By churning through more data in a much faster and easier way than current methods, it achieved unprecedented accuracy. GraphCast also predicted the onset of extreme temperatures further into the future than current methods. With 2024 set to be even warmer, this AI will help communities better prepare against extreme weather to potentially save lives.