Predicting Nuclear Tests with Seismology

Wednesday - March 20 2024, 18:51 UTC - 8 months ago

A new study has found that Earth scientists and statisticians can now predict with 99% accuracy if an underground nuclear test has taken place, based on seismic data analysis. This method is faster and less computationally expensive compared to previous methods and could be crucial in detecting and preventing secret nuclear tests. Previous methods only had an 82% accuracy rate, while North Korea is the only country known to have conducted an underground nuclear test in the 21st century. However, satellite imagery has revealed that other countries such as Russia, the US, and China have built new facilities at their nuclear test sites in recent years, raising concerns about the possibility of more secret tests.

Thanks to a significant scientific breakthrough in detection methods, conducting secret underground nuclear tests could become obsolete. A team of Earth scientists and statisticians say they can now tell with 99 percent accuracy if such an explosion has taken place.

The study, published in Geophysical Journal International, used a dataset of known tests in the US to improve the classification success rate from 82 percent to 99 percent. The previous methods used to identify underground nuclear explosions had an 82 percent accuracy rate.

In the 21st century, North Korea is the only country known to have conducted an underground nuclear test. However, satellite imagery has revealed that Russia, the US, and China have all built new facilities at their nuclear test sites in recent years. This has raised concerns about the possibility of other countries conducting secret nuclear tests.

The secretive communist state of North Korea had previously confirmed that they had successfully tested a weapon with a force of between 100-370 kilotons. This is significantly more powerful than the 15 kiloton bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945.

Although there is no suggestion that the three superpowers are planning to resume nuclear testing, the current global security landscape is uncertain. The conflict in Ukraine has heightened tensions and raised concerns about the possibility of more nuclear tests.

Lead author Dr. Mark Hoggard, of The Australian National University, explained that the previous methods used to identify underground nuclear explosions failed to establish that North Korea had conducted a test in 2013. He said, "The explosion goes off and you have all this energy that radiates out, which can be measured on seismometers. So, the science problem becomes how do we tell the difference between that and a naturally-occurring earthquake?" .

The new method developed by the team uses revised mathematics and more advanced statistical treatment to analyze seismic data and differentiate between nuclear explosions and other seismic sources. The team says this approach is faster and less computationally expensive compared to physically modeling dynamics of suspected nuclear testing sites deep underground.

Dr. Hoggard added that there may still be instances of underground nuclear tests being carried out surreptitiously in some parts of the world. The high volume of earthquakes makes it difficult to investigate each event and determine if it is suspicious or not. He emphasized the importance of methods like theirs in effectively monitoring and detecting underground nuclear tests.

He also noted that their method does not require any new equipment, making it suitable for real-time monitoring. This could be crucial in detecting and preventing any potential secret nuclear tests. The research was conducted by a team of Earth scientists and statisticians working at ANU and the Los Alamos government research lab in the US. Their work “dramatically improves” previous methods and could pave the way for more efficient and accurate detection of underground nuclear tests.