How Scale Will Be the Key to Winning in the AI and Technology Revolution

Tuesday - January 9 2024, 04:02 UTC - 10 months ago

In the AI and technology revolution, the key to success lies in scale – whether it's in large language models, cloud computing, or autonomous vehicles. As we push for 1000 AI exaflops, powered by massive amounts of energy, we can expect to see exponential growth in the world economy and the development of new frontiers, such as space. This new era of technology will undoubtedly change the face of civilization, just like the industrial revolution did, except at a much faster rate.

The industrial and information revolution that began in the 1800s has transformed the world in unimaginable ways. From hand-written manuscripts to mass-produced newspapers, from hand-built cars to factories producing millions of vehicles per year, the winners of the past 200 years were those who were able to scale their operations and innovations to previously unimaginable levels. And now, with the rise of artificial intelligence and the technology race, the key to winning is once again scale.

OpenAI and Google have shown the power of scale in their advancements in large language models (LLM) over the past 6 years. With the latest LLM boasting 100 billion parameters, and even a trillion parameters in the near future, the potential for language-based AI is virtually limitless. OpenAI's success in the AI race can be attributed to their ability to scale their compute exponentially, thanks to investments from Silicon Valley companies and venture capitalists.

But it's not just in the field of AI that scale is proving to be a game changer. Cloud computing, which has become a multi-trillion industry, owes its success to its ability to scale and provide immense value at lower marginal costs. And with advancements like Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) version 12.X, which relies solely on neural networks, scale will be the key to achieving true autonomous driving. However, as FSD scales and improves, more compute power and energy will be needed, highlighting the interconnected nature of scale, energy, and technology.

As we push towards achieving 1000 AI Exaflops – which is predicted to require about 1 gigawatt of power – we can expect to see revolutionary advancements in not just AI, but also in humanoid robots and self-driving cars and trucks. This, in turn, is expected to have a monumental impact on the world economy, potentially increasing it from 100 trillion to 10 quadrillion in just 40 years.

The AI and technology revolution will be the defining race of our time, surpassing the impact of even the industrial revolution. And just like the industrial revolution began with simple forms of energy like whale fat and wood, the AI revolution is now being powered by electricity and other natural resources. But as technology continues to advance, we can expect to see the demand for more energy and compute skyrocket, paving the way for the development and colonization of space.

And just like how the scale of civilization has exponentially increased over the centuries, from 190 million people in 0 AD to over 7 billion today, the scale is set to increase at an even faster rate in the coming years. From building mass-produced spaceships to achieving a 1000X scale of energy and compute infrastructure and society, the true potential of scale will finally be realized.

So when future generations look back at movies about our time, they won't just see different clothes and tools – they will see a civilization that has achieved a level of scale and technology that was previously unimaginable. The race towards scale and its impact on society will be evident in every aspect of our lives.