Artificial Super Intelligence and its Rise

Saturday - December 2 2023, 21:45 UTC - 11 months ago

Elon Musk believes that ASI (Artificial Super Intelligence) will be created within about three years and it will be so advanced that it will far surpass human capabilities. Nividia's H100 GPUs have already been sold out until 2024. Current AI tests such as Turing and the Coffee Test have been created to evaluate the development of AI. Mass produced humanoid robots with AI systems will be available in the next few years. Elon believes that Artificial Superintelligence would allow machines to choose their own mission and create their own technology and ideas.

Elon Musk believes that ASI (Artificial Super Intelligence) will be created within about three years and it will be smarter than the smartest human at most anything and will be able to write as good a novel as J.K. Rowling, discover new physics, or invent new technology.

Martin Shkreli revealed that training of OpenAI GPT-5 is expected to require a budget of $2.0-$2.5 billion. The training process will involve the use of 500,000 H100s Tensor Core GPUs over 90 days or an alternative configuration. The estimated cost per Nvidia H100 chip and peripheral components is covered by Nvidia’s street price, which ranges from $25,000 to $30,000. The development of chips like the H100 requires substantial investment in research and development, with Nvidia’s AI-accelerating products already sold out until 2024. The AI accelerator market is expected to be worth around $150 billion by 2027.

Definitions for AI .

AGI = artificial general intelligence = a machine that performs at the level of an average (median) human.

ASI = artificial superintelligence = a machine that performs at the level of an expert human in practically any field.

Turing Test .

In this test, 2 humans and a machine look at something they haven’t seen and converse about it. The conversation is recorded and an evaluator determines which descriptor is the machine. The machine is only disqualified if the evaluator is positive it can identify it.

The Coffee Test (Wozniak) .

If AGI machines need to understand the world as well as humans do, they must know how to make a good coffee. In this test an ai robot is required to go into an average home and figure out how to make coffee. It involves finding the coffee machine and adding coffee, as well as sourcing a mug and correctly brewing the hot drink.

Robot College Student Tests .

The machine would take the same university classes as humans and complete the exam. GPT4 is already scoring very well at these tests.

Employment Test .

This is where we should begin to worry about an I-Robot world. This test determines whether a machine can perform at least as well as humans in the same jobsA speed superintelligence is an intellect that is just like a human mind but faster. This is conceptually the easiest form of superintelligence to analyze. — Bostrom, Nick. Superintelligence. OUP Oxford. Kindle Edition.

Collective superintelligence. A system composed of a large number of smaller intellects such that the system’s overall performance across many very general domains vastly outstrips that of any current cognitive system.

Quality superintelligence. A system that is at least as fast as a human mind and vastly qualitatively smarter.

Mass Produced Humanoid Robots are Coming .

Mass produced humanoid robots are coming. The humanoid robots will have the AI systems added to them. How quickly will they enhance or replace factory work? Like mass produced Futurama Bender but performing the factory work tasks instead of being a lazy drinking robot.

If Elon is correct and we have Artificial Super Intelligence in three years. This would be very much like the Star Trek Data Android for intelligence and productivity. However, we would choose our own mission and create our own technology and ideas.