Agriculture Innovation to Fight Climate Change

Friday - December 29 2023, 22:51 UTC - 10 months ago

At the annual United Nations climate conference of 2023, agriculture was brought to the forefront due to its major contribution to one-third of all greenhouse gas emissions. The Innovation Commission for Climate Change, Food Security and Agriculture identified seven areas for innovation to ensure sufficient food production, minimize emissions and reach hundreds of millions of people. Three innovations in particular - accurate, accessible weather forecasts, precision fertilization and better crop breeding – can pay off economically and be scaled up quickly.

For the first time ever, food and agriculture took center stage at the annual United Nations climate conference in 2023. More than 150 countries signed a declaration, committing to make their food systems – everything from production to consumption – a focal point in national strategies to address climate change.

While the declaration is thin on concrete actions to adapt to climate change and reduce emissions, it draws attention to a crucial issue. The global food supply is increasingly facing disruptions from extreme heat and storms. It is also a major contributor to climate change, responsible for one-third of all greenhouse gas emissions from human activities. This tension is why agriculture innovation is increasingly being elevated in international climate discussions.

At present, agriculture provides enough food for the world’s 8 billion people, although many do not have adequate access. But to feed a global population of 10 billion in 2050, croplands would need to expand by 660,000 to 1.2 million square miles (171 million to 301 million hectare) relative to 2010. That would lead to more deforestation, which contributes to climate change. Further, some practices widely relied on to produce sufficient food, such as using synthetic fertilizers, also contribute to climate change.

Simply eliminating deforestation and these practices without alternative solutions would decrease the world’s food supply and farmers’ incomes. Fortunately, innovations are emerging that can help.

In a report released Dec. 2, the Innovation Commission for Climate Change, Food Security and Agriculture, founded by Nobel-winning economist Michael Kremer, identifies seven priority areas for innovation that can help ensure sufficient food production, minimize greenhouse gas emissions and be scaled up to reach hundreds of millions of people.

I’m an agriculture economist and executive director for the commission. Three innovations in particular stand out for their ability to scale up quickly and pay off economically.

Accurate, accessible weather forecasts .

With extreme weather leaving crops increasingly vulnerable and farmers struggling to adapt, accurate weather forecasts are crucial. Farmers need to know what to expect, both in the days ahead and farther out, to make strategic decisions about planting, irrigating, fertilizing and harvesting.

Yet access to accurate, detailed forecasts is rare for farmers in many low- and middle-income countries.

Our assessment shows that investing in technology to collect data and make forecasts widely available – such as by radio, text message or WhatsApp – can pay off many times over for economies.

For example, accurate state-level forecasts of seasonal monsoon rainfall totals would help Indian farmers optimize sowing and planting times, providing an estimated US$3 billion in benefits over five years – at a cost of around $5 million.

If farmers in Benin received accurate forecasts by text message, we estimate that they could save each farmer $110 to $356 per year, a large amount in that country.

More sharing of information among neighboring countries, using platforms like the World Meteorological Organization, would deliver even more benefits.