2035 Economic Crisis - The Downfall of China, Japan, Europe, and the US

Wednesday - June 14 2023, 06:09 UTC - 1 year ago

2035 is predicted to be the start of global economic recessions and depressions. China has 10-15 years where its economy will not be truly horrible, and this is the time when Europe and the US could also experience severe economic depression. China's fertility rate and population size is dropping, with Japan already having lost 6 million population from its peak. The US will end its surge of economic growth from the Echo Boomer generation. All developed countries will suffer a median age increase of 10 years. The lower demand in China, Europe and Japan will cause a property bust, which will put their banks at risk.

2035 could be the start of global recessions and depressions that virtually never end. China still has 10-15 years where its economy will not be truly horrible. This is also the time, when European economies also get terrible and the US exists its millennial echo-boom. The only hope will be if AI, robotics and self-driving cars creates an offsetting economic boom or if radical antiaging technology is developed to restore vitality and fertility to humanity.

China will be continuing to leverage the last effects of urbanization. China is at about 65% urban and China can go to 80% urban. China’s overall population has started to shrink. China’s fertility rate has been about 1.18 for the past three years. Previous, UN population forecasts where China loses the population of Japan by 2050 (dropping from 1.42 billion to 1.3 billion) assumed that China would have a fertility rate of 1.6. 35% fewer babies per year means 9 million babies per year instead of 13 million. The drop accelerates as 2 million fewer girls do not exist to have babies in the 2040s. There is a chance that the fertility rates drops to the 0.8 level of South Korea.

Urbanization can continue to offset the declining overall population until around 2035. The population decline then gets even worse and the urbanization process will be completed.China will be aging at the same time. China will be going from an average age of 38 now to over 50 years in 2050. The aging population will be a 20-40% hit on GDP.The GDP hits by 2035 will already be at the level that Japan has experienced from 2008 to 2023. Japan has lost 6 million people from its peak. Economic growth from technology and other factors have barely offset the economic impacts of demographic decline.

The projections for China are worse than current UN estimates. China in 2050 will likely look more like current China in 2070 projections.China could keep to 2-3% GDP growth per year and contribute 0.3 to 0.5% to overall world GDP from now to 2035. After 2035, China could have persistent -2 to -3% GDP growth. This would be a 0.3 to 0.5% drag on the overall world GDP.

China entering sharp decline from 2035-2050 will then be a negative drag on overall world GDP growth. This will be at about the same time that there will growing negative effects from Japan’s decline, German decline, Korea, Italy and Spain decline.

There will be less positive contribution from India and other countries.

In 2035-2040, the US and Canada will be ending the surge in economic growth from the echo boomers (Millenials).

All developed countries will have median ages from up from 40 to about 50. This will be a negative 1% per year.

The lower demand in China, Europe and Japan will cause a property bust. This could put the banks in China, Europe and Japan at risk.

Debt problems and financial systems will be get worse and there will be less growth and earnings to offset.